Claudius's plan was to manipulate the fight to ensure Hamlet's death, and he did this by:
* Poisoning Laertes's sword: The blade was coated with poison so that anyone who was touched by it would die.
* Poisoning a cup of wine: Claudius planned to have Hamlet drink from a poisoned cup if the sword failed.
Therefore, Claudius did not bet on either participant; instead, he orchestrated the whole situation to ensure Hamlet's demise.