Here's why:
* Catch rates in Pokémon XD are not based on a simple formula: Unlike in other games, the catch rate in XD is affected by various factors, including the Pokémon's level, the Poké Ball used, the status condition it has, and the player's "catch rate" stat. This makes it difficult to predict the exact probability of a successful catch.
* Lugia's catch rate is unknown: The official catch rate of Lugia in XD is not publicly available, and it's likely to be incredibly low due to its legendary status.
However, some factors could influence the effectiveness of a Timer Ball:
* Lugia's status: If you can inflict a status condition like sleep or freeze on Lugia, the Timer Ball will have a higher chance of working.
* Player's catch rate: The player's catch rate stat is affected by their Trainer level and the Poké Balls they have used. A higher catch rate could increase the chances of catching Lugia with a Timer Ball.
In Conclusion:
While a Timer Ball has a chance to catch Lugia, it's highly unlikely to be as effective as a Master Ball. It's always a good idea to use a Master Ball for legendary Pokémon, as they are notoriously difficult to catch.